Connecting the Economy to the Stock Market

Presentation on Monday, March 18, 2019 by F. Louis Floyd.

The economy and the stock market are tightly interconnected, with economics being a large driver of market behavior. Most people miss that connection because of long and variable lag times in reporting of economic data, while stock market data is available instantaneously. In addition, both economic and market data contain large amounts of noise that frequently obscures the underlying signals that are of interest. Once noise is properly filtered out, economic information strongly mimics large and medium market cycles, but not small ones.

Cyclic behavior in both the economy and the stock market is the natural consequence of complex interactive systems that contain numerous internal feed-back loops. Short term market gyrations are related to people’s opinions and emotional reactions to perceived trends, rather than economic fundamentals, and are amplified by computer-driven trading. As the period of oscillation lengthens, cycles become progressively more related to underlying fundamentals, and less dependent on the psychological components. Numerous studies (cf. Dalbar) suggest that individual investors would be best-served by focusing on medium and large market cycles, while ignoring the small ones.  Unfortunately most exhibit the opposite behavior, with resulting poor results.

Graphical representations are particularly useful for monitoring economic and market cycles, with minimal effort.  They are more meaningful and credible to the typical observer, and clarify lead/coincident/lag behavior of various components of economic data that can be useful for anticipating impending changes in trends. Economic data and graphics are available from the St. Louis Federal Reserve website. Market data and graphics are easily viewed from any number of providers.

This talk will demonstrate some simple steps that any investor can follow to obtain clearer information to guide his/her efforts.

A K.I.S.S. System of Investing and Managing Your Savings

Let seasoned investor and AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Cleveland Chapter President, Chuck Evans, show you his simple system of investing and managing your savings. He will examine investing in a portfolio view and how he arrived at choosing this methodology. No advanced degree is required to implement his ideas successfully and handle these tasks yourself.

AttachmentSize
A KISS SYSTEM -WLPL-2018.pdf3.8 MB

Validating Technical Analysis Patterns with Simple Statistics by F. Louis Floyd

Presentation: Monday, April 16, 2018 at 7:00pm

Abstract:

  • Stock market prices are the collective net opinion of all the buyers and sellers in the market. This net opinion
    • has an innate upward bias over time
    • varies randomly over time intervals less than a few years
  • Random behavior is well-described by simple descriptive statistics: central tendency, breadth, tail probability
  • Technical Analysis is an excellent means of
    • visualizing price behavior over time.
    • illustrating the simple statistics underlying price behavior
    • detecting trend changes, which are useful in making trading decisions.
  • Time-shifted moving average envelops can be employed to visually validate the concept of trading channels, which in turn supports their use for detecting future transitions (changes in trends).
  • Employing a plurality of multiple indicators is a convenient means of verifying useful buy/sell decision-making signals.
  • Time lags can be reduced by utilizing different indicator combinations for buy and sell decisions.
  • As always, the credibility of source data is critical, regardless of strategy. Simple noise filtering is the first step in enhancing data credibility.
AttachmentSize
slides-for-TA-validation-talk2.pdf2.04 MB

The U.S. Economy & Economic Policy: What It Means for the Individual Investor

Presentation: Monday, March 19, 2018

Former U.S. Treasury Department economist, Dr. Kevin Jacques, shared the slides from his presentation discussing the basics of the U.S. economy and economic policy and how they influence the U.S. stock market. The discussion will focused on both past and present interactions between the economy and the stock market, with attention paid to helping individual investors make better investment decisions.

AttachmentSize
US-Economy-Economic-Policy_IIG-2018Mar19.pdf2.07 MB

Lou Floyd's CYCLES Handouts and Abstract

CYCLES: Economic, monetary, business, stock market: What they are, why they exist, and why they matter. Presented on April 17, 2017.

AttachmentSize
Title+Abstract_posted_on_Evanced.pdf215.08 KB
Handouts-for-CYCLES-posted-on-Evanced.pdf2.96 MB

Lou Floyd's PowerPoint for Sept. 19, 2016

Techniques for Anticipating Trend Changes will be presented on Monday, September 19, 2016.

AttachmentSize
AnticipatingTrendChanges_09192016_handout.pdf1.61 MB

Gary Harloff's PowerPoint for August 15, 2016

Just How Good is Active Portfolio Management Compared to Buy-and-Hold?

AttachmentSize
081516_Just how good is active portfolio management compared_f.pdf3.11 MB

Lou Floyd's Handout for Nov 16, 2015

An abstract and references related to the question, "Just How Random Is the Stock Market?" which will be presented on Monday, November 16, 2015 from 7:00-8:30pm in the Porter Room.

AttachmentSize
JustHowRandomIstheStockMarket-IIG handout.pdf300.76 KB

Dr. Gary Harloff's PowerPoint for Oct 19, 2015

Dr. Gary Harloff will illustrate market timing results for equities and bonds and discuss dynamic asset allocation for portfolio management on Monday, October 19, 2015 from 7:00-8:30pm in the Porter Room.

AttachmentSize
HarloffCapitalManagementPorterPresentation10-15_final_a.pdf1.46 MB

Herb Geissler's Powerpoint for IIG meeting: May 2, 2013

AttachmentSize
2013MayClimateWestlake.ppt2.42 MB