Validating Technical Analysis Patterns with Simple Statistics by F. Louis Floyd

Presentation: Monday, April 16, 2018 at 7:00pm


  • Stock market prices are the collective net opinion of all the buyers and sellers in the market. This net opinion
    • has an innate upward bias over time
    • varies randomly over time intervals less than a few years
  • Random behavior is well-described by simple descriptive statistics: central tendency, breadth, tail probability
  • Technical Analysis is an excellent means of
    • visualizing price behavior over time.
    • illustrating the simple statistics underlying price behavior
    • detecting trend changes, which are useful in making trading decisions.
  • Time-shifted moving average envelops can be employed to visually validate the concept of trading channels, which in turn supports their use for detecting future transitions (changes in trends).
  • Employing a plurality of multiple indicators is a convenient means of verifying useful buy/sell decision-making signals.
  • Time lags can be reduced by utilizing different indicator combinations for buy and sell decisions.
  • As always, the credibility of source data is critical, regardless of strategy. Simple noise filtering is the first step in enhancing data credibility.
slides-for-TA-validation-talk2.pdf2.04 MB

Lou Floyd's CYCLES Handouts and Abstract

CYCLES: Economic, monetary, business, stock market: What they are, why they exist, and why they matter. Presented on April 17, 2017.

Title+Abstract_posted_on_Evanced.pdf215.08 KB
Handouts-for-CYCLES-posted-on-Evanced.pdf2.96 MB

Chuck Evan's PowerPoint for February 20, 2017

A KISS System to Manage Your Money


Lou Floyd's PowerPoint for Sept. 19, 2016

Techniques for Anticipating Trend Changes will be presented on Monday, September 19, 2016.

AnticipatingTrendChanges_09192016_handout.pdf1.61 MB

Gary Harloff's PowerPoint for August 15, 2016

Just How Good is Active Portfolio Management Compared to Buy-and-Hold?

081516_Just how good is active portfolio management compared_f.pdf3.11 MB

Lou Floyd's Handout for Nov 16, 2015

An abstract and references related to the question, "Just How Random Is the Stock Market?" which will be presented on Monday, November 16, 2015 from 7:00-8:30pm in the Porter Room.

JustHowRandomIstheStockMarket-IIG handout.pdf300.76 KB

Dr. Gary Harloff's PowerPoint for Oct 19, 2015

Dr. Gary Harloff will illustrate market timing results for equities and bonds and discuss dynamic asset allocation for portfolio management on Monday, October 19, 2015 from 7:00-8:30pm in the Porter Room.

HarloffCapitalManagementPorterPresentation10-15_final_a.pdf1.46 MB

Herb Geissler's Powerpoint for IIG meeting: May 2, 2013

2013MayClimateWestlake.ppt2.42 MB

John Sawczak's Investment Calendar for 2013

This investment calendar is from Mr. Sawczak's year-end wrap up for 2012.

Calendar 2013.doc38.5 KB